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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence wins the award. However, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or just the most shocking upset.

But the latest field is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions fading and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing several other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal year!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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