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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.