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Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative positions."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."